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24 maart 2020

COVID-19 in Europe: the Italian lesson - Lancet

Bron: https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306905.pdf

Key messages:

  • A rapid surge of cases is posing a serious threat to the Italian national health system because of the limited capacity of intensive care units
  • The Italian government introduced progressive mitigation measurements on March 9 and March 11
  • According to data trends before March 8, prediction was 30.000 cases by March 15 → eventually a slight deviation from the prediction with 24747 cases by March 15
  • Measures introduced by March 11 began reducing the number of new cases within 3-4 days
  • All other European countries appear to be in a similar situation, with just a short time-lag of a couple of weeks (figure)
  • All countries should adopt restrictive measures to limit viral diffusion, ensure appropriate health-system response and reduce mortality, which appears to be higher than previously estimated → case-fatality rate of almost 4%